Expedite damage scenario of the 26 September earthquake

An expedite damage scenario is a quick evaluation of the expected effects, on people and buildings, in case an earthquake which affected in the past the area of interest should repeat. The huge amount of historical information today available (more information) is used to represent the macroseismic intensities of the past (those which are expected to occur again) and then superimpose them to the present territorial characteristics of the area.

A suitable example concerning today situation: in the year 1279 the area of Serravalle - Nocera Umbra was affected by the maximum effects of a strong earthquake (maximum intensity 10 MCS) which is easy to be looked at as the historical twin of the 26 September 1997 earthquake (more information).

The reconstruction of the expedite damage scenario of the 1279 earthquake is shown in the following figure.

It is important to stress that the expedite damage scenario caused by the 1279 earthquake is indeed very similar to the 26 September 1997 earthquake (see following figure), apart from one degree of difference in the maximum intensity (1279 Imax = 10; 1997 Imax = IX).

The reconstruction of expedite damage scenarios is an activity recently develope d by GNDT/CNR (more information).